Exam 1 Scores Posted to WebCT

Exam 1 grades have been posted to WebCT (including descripive statistics). We will review Exam 1 in-class on Wednesday.

Exam 1 on Monday (yes, this Monday!)

Exam 1 this monday will have around 10 multiple choice style questions and 4 to 5 essay/short answer/calculation questions.

All you need to bring is your pencils, basic calculator, and Scan-tron (if you have one) to the exam. This is a no notes, closed book examination.

If you will be required to use a z or t table, I will provide copies of the tables that we have been using for class.

Richardson ISD-what's it worth?

Richardson ISD: what’s it worth? A comparison of residential sales prices by school district and municipal jurisdictions in a North Texas suburban region.

The realtors in the Richardson ISD school district proudly display property for-sale signs with RISD logos attached, indicating to potential buyers that a house location within RISD is a strong selling point for many buyers. RISD administration boasts many district awards over the years as one of the strongest performers in public education excellence in Texas and in the DFW metropolitan region. From the evidence suggested, residential properties for sale in Richardson ISD would seem to command a selling price premium over other comparable properties in adjacent neighborhoods located in different public school districts.

This study assumes that families with school-age children would prefer to live in a public school district with higher education quality as measured by state education rating standards and other public measures of school performance. Their preference for a better school district will be measurable in their home-purchasing decisions as a price premium paid for comparable housing and property amenities in one school district versus others nearby. Other categories of home buyers, such as “empty nesters” or “DINK’s” may not be as attracted to the value of a school district, and would not be willing to pay a premium for a property more typically demanded by these segments of the market (i.e., smaller homes, townhomes, condominiums, duplexes.)

Richardson ISD covers geographic areas of the City of Richardson, City of Garland, and the City of Dallas. However, each of these three municipalities is also served by at least one other local independent school district: Plano ISD, Garland ISD, and Dallas ISD, respectively. This study hypothesizes that residential home sales in each municipality served by RISD will command respectively higher prices than comparable homes in size, age and amenities located in the same city jurisdiction but in different ISD service areas. The study will also investigate whether there are any moderating relationships between ISD serving the home and other features of the home itself, such as size, age, and number of rooms. The house size, age and number of rooms are hypothesized to be proxies for the demographic segment of the housing market served (e.g., nuclear family with school age children vs. singles, couples, and retired.)

Confidence Interval Homework Answers

Ok, I can't write the confidence intervals the correct way, but here are some check figures for questions 1 and 2 only.

1. P($82,864.02 le U ge $84,902.64)=.90

2. P($78,916.24 le Xnew ge $88,850.42)=.90

What did you get for problems 3 and 4 (skip 5)? Please post your answer by commenting to this post.

Significance of Seller Paid Cost in Residential Real Estate

When selling residential property, there are several techniques used by the seller to make the property more attractive to potential buyers. One of those techniques is the seller offering to pay for some of the costs (including closing costs, repairs, etc.). From the sellers' point of view, it is commonly given that a) the final/net funds received from the sale and b) the least amount of time the house stays on the market, are what matter. From the financial aspect, allocating some funds for closing costs, repairs, etc. , which otherwise is expected to be lost in discount needed to arrive at final sales price, is a well known practice. The seller, after paying for some of the costs, expects to recover those costs at the end, or at least expects a positive correlation between the amount of paid costs vs. the final sales price. From the time aspect, it is expected that such practice will also result in the house being sold faster than otherwise. My hypothesis is that there is no significant correlation between the amount of seller paid costs (% of asking price) vs. the final sales price (% discount applied to asking price in arriving at the final sales price) or between the amount of seller paid costs (% of asking price) vs. the number of days a house stays on the market.

Conservation/Historical Districts and Heighborhood Groups

Oak Cliff was developed as an elite residential area in the late 1800's. For many years the area competed with Highland Park as the top enclave. Beginning in the 1960's the area experienced a rapid deterioration and became a symbol of urban blight. Recently, that has changed and the area is experiencing a tremendous amount of reinvestment in residential (and commercial) properties. There are many catalysts for this redevelopment. My hypothesis is that homes in the 26 various conservation/historic/neighborhood districts sell at a premium versus homes outside of officially designated areas. Furthermore, the older the neighborhood plat, the higher the sales price will be.

Alex Papavasiliou

New Urbanist Communities: Does it add value?

Recently there are some residential subdivisions are developed on new urbanism principals in a typical suburban locations in the DFW metroplex. Whether it is life style preference, change in demographics or scarcity of the land, more and more such communities are being proposed.
But eventually if these types of developments bring any premium to the home prices compared to the traditional housing, will decide if this trend is here to stay.

This study focuses on the comparison and analysis of the home prices in such sub division to the home prices for traditional homes in the surrounding area.

Listing-Sold Price Change VS Days on Market

This project will study the relationship between the difference of listing - sold price and the number of days the property has being listing on MLS. It will use the default data (Arlington area 83-1) as the project database. The study will focus on 4 situations: 1) Home sellers value their houses too high, the properties will be listing on the market for many days. 2) The houses are overvalued but sold very soon. 3) Home sellers set the price lower than the market value, houses are sold very quickly. 4)Houses are being undervalued and buyer are hesitate about the true value of the properties and make them listing for long time. The study will test if these trends or some them are believable in the area of Arlington. Also, the report will find out what factors have the main effect on the listing days as well as on the price change.

The Impact of Tear-downs and Rebuilds at White Rock Lake

White Rock Lake (areas 12-7 and 12-8) is a very unique and desirable location within Dallas County in terms of having waterfront property in close proximity to downtown, SMU, and various other shopping and dining amenities. Its per square list prices often exceed $150-200 per square foot which is comparably high within the greater Dallas area (e.g. Plano in Collin County averages closer to an average price of $95 per square foot)

This area also contains a battle for the character of its neighborhoods as it has been the source of frequent redevelopment efforts in recent years. These efforts have largely been of the tear-down and rebuild variety. The existing housing developments were created primarily in the decades of the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s with predominantly similar architectural designs and proportions. However, the newer houses that have been built within these neighborhoods have varied widely in terms of architecture (e.g. two-story modern designs reside in the middle of a street with single story mid-century ranch styles) and in size as the newer designs tend to dwarf the size of its neighbors.

While this area is a desirable location within the city, my study will analyze the effect of tear-down/rebuilds on the sales prices of neighboring properties that have not undergone significant renovation within the last ten years. This will be done by examining sales data associated with the year built, mean size of houses that are less than 10 years old versus 10+ years, and the mean number of bedrooms/baths between the two age categories. In addition, I will look at the magnitude of this effect on sales price by considering proximity to the lake itself by geographic distance.

Has the Trinity River Project Increased the Sales Prices of Surrounding Houses?

The development project underway called the Trinity River Corridor Project, which is located along side Downtown Dallas, has made a huge impact on the surrounding neighborhoods. This project is supposed to cover about 20 miles of the Trinity River, which will include new roads, hike and bike trails, wetlands and lakes, and additional park and recreational facilities. The project is set to have many benefits including increased flood protection, traffic congestion relief, and neighborhood revitalization. North Oak Cliff is one of the areas that has been highly impacted by this project. Although the neighborhood was once an area seemingly in decline, it has had a great comeback in the last few years. The main attraction in North Oak Cliff is the Bishop Arts District. It includes over 50 local merchants, restaurants, boutiques, and services.

There have been many new developments in the past few years in this area and I think that this has definitely boosted the sales prices of surrounding homes. I would like to focus my study on the sales price and the area in which the property is located in. I would like to see if sales prices on homes with a close proximity to the planned Trinity River Project are higher than the prices on homes that are farther away.

Richardson Heights - Days on Market

Richardson Heights is a residential neighborhood in northwest Richardson. The area of interest in our study, are homes that fall north of Beltline, south of Campbell, east of Coit, and west of US-75. The single family detached homes in this area were generally constructed between 1955 and 1965. Despite the homes being approximately 50 years of age, several realtors have told me that this area is a "hot" market. The major factors they point to is solid public schools (Richardson ISD in 2005 had 50% or more of their schools rated "exemplary" or "recognized"), affordable homes (generally between 130-180k in this area), and as the old saying goes, location, location, location! Homes in this pocket of Richardson have access to Dallas North Tollway, President George Bush Hwy (190), US75 (Central Expy), and I-635 all within a 3 mile radius.

We'd like to test the correlation between DOM (Days on Market) and the sales price. Our contention is that homes whose DOM far exceeds the median DOM for this area end up settling (closed sales) at values below the median for the area.

Ali Samee, Barrett Shepherd, Jerry Burbridge

Why Choose Arlington ?

Arlington is the 7^th largest city in Texas and 50^th largest city in United States. The city has recently become the home of the Dallas Cowboys Stadium which has increased the popularity of this area . Consequently an increase in demand is expected. But question arises will the falling trend in the real estate market survive the bubble and consumers will be again comfortable with home buying in the Tarrant County. Are there any increase in house sales and consequently any increase in house prices?

Surveys of the properties sold in 2008 and 2009 shows a lot of properties allow the owners to retain mineral rights. There can be also a possibility the home-owner just purchased the property to get access to the mineral rights and not interested in living in Arlington. If the house is leased out and the owner lives somewhere else then we can say mineral rights is the only driving factor for increase in sales.

As we know other than the type of location house prices depend on a lot of attributes. The year of construction is often looked upon by home buyers. I include a dummy variable in my work. A assign a dummy variable of 1 if the house is constructed before 1970 and 0, otherwise.

The Arlington Area 83-1 is used in my study and my purpose is to look into the factors affecting house prices and come up with suggestions which can help sellers to re-model their properties to suit the demand of buyers.

The effect of foreclosures on house prices

Most of the economies in the world are facing a serious challenge in the history. Real estate market's meltdown in the US is partly blamed for the current economic crisis. Housing crisis starts with declining housing prices in the US. Although, the housing prices starts declining from the early 2006, the problem exasperated in the second quarter of 2008 when housing prices dropped substantially. House prices fall is continuous and the housing market has not experienced any stability yet. Substantial drop in housing prices has caused significant increase in foreclosures around the country. There are several factors contributing to the collapse of housing price including size, age, noise, different features of the property. There is a widespread concern about the impact of the foreclosed house on housing price in the neighborhood. There is also a general consensus among common people that foreclosed housed are cheaper to comparable properties. In this context, this study investigates if there exists relationship between housing price and foreclosures. Are foreclosed properties underpriced to comparable properties?

The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of foreclosures on housing prices of the area near the Dallas Forth Worth International Airport. This study focuses on measuring the effects of foreclosures on house prices. Are foreclosed properties are undervalued? This paper investigates this question within a dynamic model that addresses the other factors influencing house prices. There are enough evidences that there are market wide systematic effects on housing prices. In this context, this study explores the other factors other than market conditions and the local economy in this model. This study develops a dynamic model of house market at a local level to estimate the influence of foreclosures on house price. House price is a function of several other factors. Therefore, this study concentrates to same local area which share common characteristics. Modeling housing market at the local area with common characteristics is expected to be helpful in identifying the relation between foreclosures and house price. In other words, the study on the factor affecting house prices at a local level will improve empirical finding which helps to gauge the effect of foreclosures on house price.

This study is organized as follows. Section II reviews the existing literature on the relationships among foreclosures, home prices, and other housing variables. Section III provides the detail information about the sample source and selection process, variables used in this study, estimation techniques employed. Section IV presents the estimation results of the study. This section also includes results of several robustness tests. Finally, Section V concludes the finding of the study.

Best Time to Sell a Real Property

The sale price of a real property may be influenced by which part of the year the sale occurs. Generally, Spring and Summer are the best times to relocate and purchase a house. Hence if the sale is made in Spring, there is a general trend in an increase in inventory which could make it more difficult to sell than at a time like November when inventories are coming down. Also, if the home is a single family residence, then a sale in Summer may increase the price per square foot because families tend to relocate in tandem with the school year. If the home is a single story with room for an RV, the most likely buyer might be a retired individual or couple, in which case there is no connection to school years, making the off season a great time for them to be looking.

I would like to investigate the relationship between the timing of a sale and the price per square foot of the real property in the Arlington Area 83-1 near UTA and seek to come up with the factors if any that affect this relationship.

Favorable Schools and Home Values

I want to investigates the correlation between favorable schools and home values located within the school's district. Are home values affected by the proximity to the school? This project is designed to find data and hopefully answer this question. If you look in Dallas, you can see one of the best public schools is Highland Park. And the surrounding homes located in Highland Park and University Park are priced very high, which I feel is impacted by the location within the Highland Park high school district. I want to look in Arlington and try to find the best schools and determine if the surrounding home values are affected by the proximity to the school. 

The Value of Higher Education...

By now, you’ve most likely heard that “Location! Location! Location!” is the most important factor in real estate. The determination of this ideal “location”, from an investor’s point-of-view; is that place where property value is maximized. In this case, we are concerned about maximizing the value of a residential property (single-family residence). This ideal location could be determined by a number of factors, such as:
1. Proximity to food and entertainment;
2. Proximity to places of higher education and libraries;
3. Proximity to sources of noise;
4. Access to roads and number of road access points within a neighborhood (i.e., short-cuts);
a) Conversely, points where traffic is limited may also be associated with adding value.
5. Proximity to recreational areas (parks, lakes, biking and walking trails, etc.);
6. Neighborhood characteristics contribute to the value of the property. Characteristics such as:
a) Width and extent of paved sidewalks;
b) Number of old-growth trees within the neighborhood;
c) Nearby man-made or natural streams/canals;
7. Building characteristics also contribute to the value. Characteristics such as:
a) Wrap-around porches;
b) Single or multi-pitched roofs;
c) Number of bedrooms and bathrooms;
d) Basements;
e) Pools;

And the list goes on…

This paper will discuss how the value of a home is affected by the proximity to a place of higher education (elementary, middle, high, college, or university). Which is most desirable, living by a school (walking distance), living near a school (long walk, short bike, or short drive), or living away from a school (drive only or take the bus)? The quality of the school system will also be taken into consideration. Even if the prospective homebuyers do not have children, it would be prudent for them to research the closest schools before purchasing a home. Good public schools are always in demand and in turn affect real estate values. Communities with high scoring school districts appreciate more, or in this market, depreciate less than communities with low scoring school districts. For many prospective home buyers with children (or those who are planning to have children), the quality and reputation of the local school system may be as critical to their buying decision as the appeal and location of the home itself. The quality and reputation of the school will affect the home's value, not only when bought, but also when sold.

Topic Posts

I will try to post comments on your Final Paper Topic posts this week. It is nice to see what you are thinking about. Most topics appear to be 'do-able' (this is a technical term for you should have the data to get it done by the end of the semester).

If anyone would like to add a comment to a comment, please feel free.

How are you doing with SPSS? If it makes anyone feel better, I am getting hammered with Argus this week!!

The Value of a Cul-de-sac

The Value of a Cul-de-sac investigates the correlation between residences located on a cul-de-sac to its home value. Essentially, a cul-de-sac is a dead end street with a turnaround at the end for cars. There are many benefits to living on a street with a cul-de-sac. For example, there is less car traffic which leads to less noise. As a result, there is less crime as there are fewer escape routes. This creates a sense of security and piece of mind. There are many streets in the Arlington Area 83-1 that end in a cul-de-sac. This analysis will investigate whether there is an increase in value of the homes located within a cul-de-sac compared to all of the other homes.

Affects of Neighborhood Amenities

Neighborhood amenities such as parks, playgrounds, green space, walking trails, and community swimming pools are features that are generally desired by residents and can affect the property values of the homes nearby. The homes that are in close proximity to these amenities are more desirable and thus more valuable to a large number of households. Recreational activities such as walking, running, biking, swimming, and other sports activities can be enjoyed by many different age groups. The affect on value of homes that are conveniently located near parks, walking trails, and other amenities will be explored in the analysis.

Road and Real Estate

Residential real estate serves members of society though their entire lives. Young adult people typically look for single bedroom apartments or possibly two bedrooms when looking for roommates. When people get older, and start a family, three to five bedrooms may be necessary to serve the growing needs of the family. Real estate emphasizes “Location, Location, and location.” Young adult people are concerned how easy it is to get to the highway for work. However, families may choose small sized roads (less than four lanes) because they want a quiet and safe neighborhood for children. The paper is focused on how road sizes (avenue, street, blvd, lane, and highway) influence the numbers of bedrooms.

Road sizes play different roles for different people. It is important to understand the relationship between these road sizes to better understand the target market when selling residential real estate. Marketing dollars will be spent more efficiently if the target market is known. This is also important for developers to help them understand how infrastructure can play a role in promoting the sale of their property.

Venue Versus Value

Venues Versus Value discusses the relationship between the distance of different types of food venues and the surronding real estate value and sales volume. When driving down many streets (MLS area 83-1: Arlington Texas) it is evident that there is an eclectic array of food venues, and residential subdivisions. Does the presence of food venues add or subtract from the property value and sales volume inside thier supporting subdivisions?

Food Venues offer convenience and entertainment; their presence has an effect on the residential property that surrounds it. This paper shall initially propose that the distance between food venues is directly related to the value and sales volume of the aforesaid. The greater the distance: the greater the value, and the greater the sales volume. It is important to understand the relationship between specific commercial activities that serve the community for purposes of zoning, planning, and investing.

Online Raw Data Legend

I thought I'd share this with everyone. It is a link to an Excel workbook that helped me decipher ALL of the cryptic notations within my raw data. Choose the "Look Ups" tab in the Excel workbook and use the "Ctrl+F" function to find the notation that is of interest. Once you know what the notation stands for, return to your raw data and use the replace option in the "Ctrl+F" dialog box to replace the notation with a more meaningful phrase. Example: Replace "EXFGST_QUA" with "Exterior Features, Guest Quarters"

www.ntreis.net/documents/MLSOnSite_2722007153057.xls


Eduardo (ED) Torres-Valdez

variable input form link on web

Here is the variable input form as a web link....I found it while researching and thought I'd share it with everyone.

http://www.ntreis.net/documents/Forms_58200522131.htm


Eduardo (Ed) Torres-Valdez

SPSS Must Dos

You need to figure out the following procedures in SPSS for both the "noise" papers and final papers.   Good luck this week!

*Input data by either loading an Excel file into SPSS or cut and pasting data directly into SPSS (when cut and pasting remember that you need to setup the SPSS column type before you can paste the data).

*Run a basic descriptive statistics table for all variables.

*Run frequency tables or charts for all variables.

*Run a correlation matrix.

*Run simple xy plots to visualize simple bivariate relationship between variables.

*Learn how to recode qualitative data into dummy (indicator or 0, 1) variables.

*Run a regression analysis using Enter and Stepwise commands.

*Run various diagnostic test on regression residuals.

*Create confidence intervals and prediction intervals for regression coefficients and estimates.

WebCT Setup

WebCT is now setup for the course. Please remember that we only use WebCT for posting grades. Never contact me through WebCT e-mail. Always use reae5350@gmail.com. Please log-on to your WebCT and verify that you are enrolled in the course. Thank you!

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Watauga, TX Data...

Thanks for your help. I received the Watauga data just fine Dr. Hansz.

Eduardo (ED) Torres-Valdez

Default Data Reposted (with many more fields)

Just a quick note to let you know that I reposted the default data (the area 83 in Arlington) to include many more fields. The default data should be go to go. If you find any problems, contact me or bring the issues to class.

Internet resources for learning SPSS

Here is the website from UCLA I was talking about to learn SPSS online in the first class.
http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/spss/

Videos here: http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/spss/notes_old/default.htm and http://www.stat.tamu.edu/spss.php

SPSS Student Version Limitation...

The Student Version of SPSS can export results to a Microsoft Word or Excel file. Export to PowerPoint is available only on Windows operating systems and is not available with the Student Version.

Eduardo (ED) Torres-Valdez

Text Chapter Titles

If you are matching up chapters with another text, I though the chapter titles would be helpful.  Please see below.

Chapter

1   Introduction and Descriptive Statistics

2   Probability

3   Random Variables

4   The Normal Distribution

5   Sampling and Sampling Distributions

6   Confidence Intervals

7   Hypothesis Testing

8   The Comparison of Two Populations

9   Analysis of Variance

10  Simple Linear Regression and Correlation

11  Multiple Regress

(we will stop at chapter 11)

SPSS Student Version will Be Fine

The SPSS Student version will accommodate 1,500 records and 50 variables which will be more than adequate for our purposes. If you find a good deal on a student version, it should work fine.

Dr. Hansz's Summer Office Hours

My office hours will be from 2 to 4 PM on Mondays and Wednesdays. Please note, I will not have office hours on June 15, 17, 22, and 24.

Class Blog

Please use this blog to ask questions (to me or other students) and feel free to post information that you think that the class might find helpful.  Thanks!

Affordable SPSS Gradpack software site....

I bought the 6-month, SPSS 17 Statistics for Windows Gradpack with Advanced Statistics, Regression and Amos for only $79.99 at:

http://estore.onthehub.com


Eduardo (ED) Torres-Valdez
817.733.4478 (cell)